Dealernews - November 2009 - (Page 42) RESEARCH DON J. BROWN DJB COMPOSITE INDEX SEVEN WORDS TO REMEMBER IT’S NOT FUN to see dealers dropping out of business. How many have? I don’t know for sure, but if I had to guess, I would say more than 3,000 franchised dealers. That’s a lot of people looking for work on the retail side. How many aftermarket companies have dropped out? I won’t venture even a guess at that one. Think of the ’80s, when businesses dropped like proverbial rocks. I think more than 3,500 franchised retailers failed. That’s from memory, so don’t hold me to it. Does it matter? Why am I even mentioning it? For one thing, people run their businesses differently depending on the environment. If you got your employees together for a meeting on how to survive, what would you say to them? We know there is too much inventory and not enough customer demand — that’s a given, right? Not necessarily, but let’s assume so. What would it mean to your employees? What would it mean to you? At the outset, you might tell your employees what they will expect to hear. So what is that? There is an old saying among salespeople and among sales managers and business owners: “You can’t save your way to success.” It sort of rolls off the tongue at any meeting about sales (or not enough sales). How many times have you heard it? While you may have heard it before, have you heard it lately? I would be surprised if you haven’t. Here you are with too many bikes and ATVs and even scooters. So how tempting it is to talk about how to keep from going broke by cutting back on expenses. Maybe there isn’t an alternative. If you have cut your budget too much, you probably don’t have any coin with which to buy advertising or promote sales by having a customer ride, a bike night, or a contest to win a new bike. Would such things cost a lot of money? Well, not really. I’m not talking about spending a lot money, but notice I also haven’t talked about saving money, either. I believe in talking about ways to get your customers back into your dealership. You can’t sell anything if your customers aren’t there, and that is one of the big problems in times like this — store traffic. Without it you can’t do much. And without incentives, it’s hard to get your customers interested in what you have to sell — which is lots and lots of inventory. But, you say, store traffic is a problem that requires a conservative approach? Wait a minute. Remember the saying: You can’t save your way to success. — DJB TOURING Sales Forecast Calendar Year 2009 TRADITIONAL Sales Forecast Calendar Year 2009 BMW Ducati Buell Honda Kawasaki Piaggio Group Suzuki Triumph Yamaha TOTAL 2009 654 2,618 733 670 614 364 2,505 3,336 2 11,497 2008 1,286 3,631 1,168 1,364 697 329 3,347 4,357 7 16,187 +/-% –49.15% –27.91% –37.24% –50.88% –11.90% 10.75% –25.15% –23.44% –64.49% –28.98% SHARE 5.69% 22.77% 6.38% 5.83% 5.34% 3.17% 21.79% 29.01% 0.02% 100% BMW Can-Am Ducati Harley-Davidson Honda Kawasaki Piaggio Group Suzuki Triumph Victory Yamaha TOTAL 2009 3,115 4,041 34 79,426 10,326 8,834 128 2,493 1,084 2,255 1,231 112,967 2008 4,504 4,685 89 90,549 13,919 12,252 211 5,820 1,109 2,042 2,047 137,227 +/-% –30.84% –13.74% –62.34% –12.28% –25.81% –27.90% –39.38% –57.17% –2.22% 10.43% –39.87% –17.68% SHARE 2.76% 3.58% 0.03% 70.31% 9.14% 7.82% 0.11% 2.21% 0.96% 2.00% 1.09% 100% MOTORCYCLE Sales Forecast Calendar Year 2009 BMW Buell Can-Am Ducati Harley-Davidson Honda Kawasaki KTM Piaggio Group Suzuki Triumph Victory Yamaha TOTAL 2009 8,540 2,902 4,041 5,222 173,447 85,998 73,265 12,609 1,498 46,936 7,039 5,621 84,750 511,866 2008 11,839 5,183 4,685 8,690 218,221 169,073 111,640 17,662 1,745 100,380 9,876 6,645 137,523 803,162 +/-% –27.87% –44.02% –13.74% –39.91% –20.52% –49.14% –34.37% –28.61% –14.17% –53.24% –28.73% –15.41% –38.37% –36.27% SHARE 1.67% 0.57% 0.79% 1.02% 33.89% 16.80% 14.31% 2.46% 0.29% 9.17% 1.38% 1.10% 16.56% 100.00% Notes: Table does not include scooters. Can-Am entry refers to its Spyder trike. Note: Can-Am entry refers to the touring version of its Spyder. Disclaimer: The negative economic conditions continue to affect the powersports industry, as they are affecting most other industries. We have not yet seen any valid indications that this recession is coming to an end. In any event, our forecats are made with the best of efforts and techniques, but given these economic pressures, we advise that the greatest care be taken in evaluating these forecasts for planning. Stay tuned. — DJB 42 DEALERNEWS NOVEMBER 2009 DEALERNEWS.COM http://www.DEALERNEWS.COM Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Dealernews - November 2009 Dealernews - November 2009 Contents From the Editors InBox Speed Read Joe Delmont COVER STORY — The Fun Starts Here Dealer Lab Distributor Report Card State-by-Statement ATV/Dirt-by-State DJB Composite Index Eric Anderson Fuel for Thought - Dave Koshollek Vintage Directory Todd Shafer Marketing Update Merchandising Update Holiday Gift Guide New Products Advertiser Index/Customer Service Mike Vaughan Dealernews - November 2009 Dealernews - November 2009 - Dealernews - November 2009 (Page Cover1) Dealernews - November 2009 - Dealernews - November 2009 (Page Cover2) Dealernews - November 2009 - Dealernews - November 2009 (Page 1) Dealernews - November 2009 - Contents (Page 2) Dealernews - November 2009 - Contents (Page 3) Dealernews - November 2009 - Contents (Page 4) Dealernews - November 2009 - Contents (Page 5) Dealernews - November 2009 - From the Editors (Page 6) Dealernews - November 2009 - From the Editors (Page 7) Dealernews - November 2009 - InBox (Page 8) Dealernews - November 2009 - InBox (Page 9) Dealernews - November 2009 - Speed Read (Page 10) Dealernews - November 2009 - Speed Read (Page 11) Dealernews - November 2009 - Speed Read (Page 12) Dealernews - November 2009 - Speed Read (Page 13) Dealernews - November 2009 - Speed Read (Page 14) Dealernews - November 2009 - Speed Read (Page 15) Dealernews - November 2009 - Speed Read (Page 16) Dealernews - November 2009 - Speed Read (Page 17) Dealernews - November 2009 - Speed Read (Page 18) Dealernews - November 2009 - Speed Read (Page 19) Dealernews - November 2009 - Speed Read (Page 20) Dealernews - November 2009 - Speed Read (Page 20a) Dealernews - November 2009 - Speed Read (Page 20b) Dealernews - November 2009 - Speed Read (Page 20c) Dealernews - November 2009 - Speed Read (Page 20d) Dealernews - November 2009 - Speed Read (Page 20e) Dealernews - November 2009 - Speed Read (Page 20f) Dealernews - November 2009 - Speed Read (Page 20g) Dealernews - November 2009 - Speed Read (Page 20h) Dealernews - November 2009 - Speed Read (Page 20i) Dealernews - November 2009 - Speed Read (Page 20j) Dealernews - November 2009 - Joe Delmont (Page 21) Dealernews - November 2009 - COVER STORY — The Fun Starts Here (Page 22) Dealernews - November 2009 - COVER STORY — The Fun Starts Here (Page 23) Dealernews - November 2009 - COVER STORY — The Fun Starts Here (Page 24) Dealernews - November 2009 - COVER STORY — The Fun Starts Here (Page 25) Dealernews - November 2009 - COVER STORY — The Fun Starts Here (Page 26) Dealernews - November 2009 - COVER STORY — The Fun Starts Here (Page 27) Dealernews - November 2009 - Dealer Lab (Page 28) Dealernews - November 2009 - Dealer Lab (Page 29) Dealernews - November 2009 - Distributor Report Card (Page 30) Dealernews - November 2009 - Distributor Report Card (Page 31) Dealernews - November 2009 - Distributor Report Card (Page 32) Dealernews - November 2009 - Distributor Report Card (Page 33) Dealernews - November 2009 - Distributor Report Card (Page 34) Dealernews - November 2009 - Distributor Report Card (Page 35) Dealernews - November 2009 - Distributor Report Card (Page 36) Dealernews - November 2009 - Distributor Report Card (Page 37) Dealernews - November 2009 - State-by-Statement (Page 38) Dealernews - November 2009 - State-by-Statement (Page 39) Dealernews - November 2009 - ATV/Dirt-by-State (Page 40) Dealernews - November 2009 - ATV/Dirt-by-State (Page 41) Dealernews - November 2009 - DJB Composite Index (Page 42) Dealernews - November 2009 - DJB Composite Index (Page 43) Dealernews - November 2009 - Eric Anderson (Page 44) Dealernews - November 2009 - Eric Anderson (Page 45) Dealernews - November 2009 - Fuel for Thought - Dave Koshollek (Page 46) Dealernews - November 2009 - Fuel for Thought - Dave Koshollek (Page 47) Dealernews - November 2009 - Vintage Directory (Page 48) Dealernews - November 2009 - Vintage Directory (Page 49) Dealernews - November 2009 - Vintage Directory (Page 50) Dealernews - November 2009 - Vintage Directory (Page 51) Dealernews - November 2009 - Vintage Directory (Page 52) Dealernews - November 2009 - Vintage Directory (Page 53) Dealernews - November 2009 - Todd Shafer (Page 54) Dealernews - November 2009 - Todd Shafer (Page 55) Dealernews - November 2009 - Marketing Update (Page 56) Dealernews - November 2009 - Marketing Update (Page 57) Dealernews - November 2009 - Merchandising Update (Page 58) Dealernews - November 2009 - Merchandising Update (Page 59) Dealernews - November 2009 - Holiday Gift Guide (Page 60) Dealernews - November 2009 - Holiday Gift Guide (Page 61) Dealernews - November 2009 - Holiday Gift Guide (Page 62) Dealernews - November 2009 - Holiday Gift Guide (Page 63) Dealernews - November 2009 - Holiday Gift Guide (Page 64) Dealernews - November 2009 - Holiday Gift Guide (Page 65) Dealernews - November 2009 - Holiday Gift Guide (Page 65a) Dealernews - November 2009 - Holiday Gift Guide (Page 65b) Dealernews - November 2009 - Holiday Gift Guide (Page 65c) Dealernews - November 2009 - Holiday Gift Guide (Page 65d) Dealernews - November 2009 - Holiday Gift Guide (Page 65e) Dealernews - November 2009 - Holiday Gift Guide (Page 65f) Dealernews - November 2009 - Holiday Gift Guide (Page 65g) Dealernews - November 2009 - Holiday Gift Guide (Page 65h) Dealernews - November 2009 - Holiday Gift Guide (Page 65i) Dealernews - November 2009 - Holiday Gift Guide (Page 65j) Dealernews - November 2009 - New Products (Page 66) Dealernews - November 2009 - New Products (Page 67) Dealernews - November 2009 - New Products (Page 68) Dealernews - November 2009 - New Products (Page 69) Dealernews - November 2009 - New Products (Page 70) Dealernews - November 2009 - New Products (Page 71) Dealernews - November 2009 - New Products (Page 72) Dealernews - November 2009 - New Products (Page 73) Dealernews - November 2009 - New Products (Page 74) Dealernews - November 2009 - New Products (Page 75) Dealernews - November 2009 - New Products (Page 76) Dealernews - November 2009 - New Products (Page 77) Dealernews - November 2009 - Advertiser Index/Customer Service (Page 78) Dealernews - November 2009 - Advertiser Index/Customer Service (Page 79) Dealernews - November 2009 - Mike Vaughan (Page 80) Dealernews - November 2009 - Mike Vaughan (Page Cover3) Dealernews - November 2009 - Mike Vaughan (Page Cover4) http://digital.dealernews.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn0910 http://digital.dealernews.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn0810 http://digital.dealernews.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn0710 http://digital.dealernews.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn0610 http://digital.dealernews.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn0510 http://digital.dealernews.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn0410 http://digital.dealernews.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn0310 http://digital.dealernews.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn0210 http://digital.dealernews.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn0110 http://digital.dealernews.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn1209 http://digital.dealernews.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn1109 http://digital.dealernews.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn1009 http://digital.dealernews.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn_gear2009 http://digital.dealernews.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn0909 http://digital.dealernews.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn0809 http://digital.dealernews.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn0709 http://digital.dealernews.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn0609 http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn0509 http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn0409 http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn0309 http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn0209 http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn0109 http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn121508 http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn1208 http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn1108 http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn1008 http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/intlmotorcycleshows_seriesguide0809 http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn0908 http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn_gear2008 http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn0808 http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn0708 http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn0608 http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn0508 http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn0408 http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn0308 http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn0208 http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn0108 http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn1207 http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn1107 http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn1007 http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn0907 http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn0807 http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn0707 http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn0607 http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn0507 http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn0407 http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/advanstar/dn0107 http://www.nxtbookMEDIA.com
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