Dealernews - October 2009 - (Page 30) RESEARCH DON J. BROWN DJB COMPOSITE INDEX AN OVERALL BAROMETER: THE INDEX EXPLAINED DESPITE THE RECESSION, a lot of dealers are still doing just fine. It’s like the real estate game. It’s all about location, location, location. Sure, it helps if you’ve been lucky enough to afford a great spot. Perhaps you’re tucked into the right place to plant your dealership. But planting is one thing. Making it grow takes the right amount of sustenance — and that doesn’t mean water. I’ve been busy testing ways to inform readers about when economic recessions or dislocations are about to start and when, approximately, they will end. In the meantime, I hope you are watching how the DJB Index in the upper right corner of the opposite page is changing from issue to issue — just as our forecasts for this calendar year change when new data or analysis warrants a change. As we explain every month at the bottom of the opposite page, the Index is the square root of the total of our sales forecasts for motorcycles, ATVs and scooters. It allows readers to look at (and keep track of easily) MOTORCYCLE Sales Forecast Calendar Year 2009 BMW Buell Can-Am Ducati Harley-Davidson Honda Kawasaki KTM Piaggio Group Suzuki Triumph Victory Yamaha TOTAL 2009 8,416 2,828 4,020 5,153 173,673 85,353 73,756 12,259 1,460 46,889 7,054 5,709 85,570 512,139 2008 11,839 5,183 4,685 8,690 218,221 169,073 111,640 17,662 1,745 100,380 9,876 6,645 137,523 803,162 +/-% –28.91% –45.43% –14.19% –40.71% –20.41% –49.52% –33.93% –30.59% –16.31% –53.29% –28.57% –14.09% –37.78% –36.23% SHARE 1.64% 0.55% 0.79% 1.01% 33.91% 16.67% 14.40% 2.39% 0.29% 9.16% 1.38% 1.11% 16.71% 100.00% one number that is a summary of our predictions. So the Index is designed to give you a clear idea of which way sales overall are heading. By taking a large number of sales and then squeezing them as the square root does, the Index makes it easier for readers to know what is really happening with regard to retail sales of ATVs, motorcycles and scooters. The Index is sort of like the “Dow Jones Index” that Wall Street watches to see whether stocks and bonds are up or down. When the Index starts to change very little, this will tell you that our forecasts overall have stabilized, and that industry sales could start increasing. But before this happens, my forecast of individual categories will begin to increase, indicating that the industry overall could be improving. That hasn’t happened yet, but stay tuned. If you think the industry is changing for the better, send me an e-mail and tell me why you think it is changing, and I will see if you are right. If you are, I will give you credit in the next column! — DJB TRADITIONAL Sales Forecast Calendar Year 2009 BMW Ducati Buell Honda Kawasaki Piaggio Group Suzuki Triumph Yamaha TOTAL 2009 651 2,637 743 667 598 352 2,497 3,350 2 11,497 2008 1,286 3,631 1,168 1,364 697 329 3,347 4,357 7 16,186 +/-% –49.38% –27.37% –36.42% –51.10% –14.22% 7.06% –25.40% –23.12% –64.49% –28.97% SHARE 5.66% 22.94% 6.46% 5.80% 5.20% 3.06% 21.72% 29.13% 0.02% 100% Notes: Table does not include scooters. Can-Am entry refers to its Spyder trike. STREETBIKES Sales Forecast Calendar Year 2009 BMW Buell Can-Am Ducati Harley-Davidson Honda Kawasaki KTM Piaggio Group Suzuki Triumph Victory Yamaha TOTAL 2009 4,302 2,828 4,020 5,153 173,656 50,268 45,697 489 1,142 34,623 7,054 5,709 50,166 385,107 2008 6,976 5,183 4,685 8,690 218,161 106,530 76,011 1,155 1,418 79,668 9,876 6,645 86,135 611,133 +/-% –38.33% –45.43% –14.19% –40.70% –20.40% –52.81% –39.88% –57.66% –19.46% –56.54% –28.57% –14.09% –41.76% –36.98% SHARE 1.12% 0.73% 1.04% 1.34% 45.09% 13.05% 11.87% 0.13% 0.30% 8.99% 1.83% 1.48% 13.03% 100% TOURING Sales Forecast Calendar Year 2009 BMW Can-Am Ducati Harley-Davidson Honda Kawasaki Piaggio Group Suzuki Triumph Victory Yamaha TOTAL 2009 3,140 4,020 34 79,246 10,424 8,826 124 2,513 1,123 2,235 1,271 112,957 2008 4,504 4,685 89 90,549 13,919 12,252 211 5,820 1,109 2,042 2,047 137,227 +/-% –30.28% –14.19% –61.93% –12.48% –25.11% –27.96% –41.18% –56.81% 1.27% 9.43% –37.90% –17.69% SHARE 2.78% 3.56% 0.03% 70.16% 9.23% 7.81% 0.11% 2.23% 0.99% 1.98% 1.13% 100% Note: Can-Am entry refers to the touring version of its Spyder. Note: Can-Am entry refers to the touring version of its Spyder. Editor’s note: The negative economic conditions continue to affect the powersports industry, as they are affecting most other industries. We have not yet seen any valid indications that this recession is coming to an end. In any event, our forecats are made with the best of efforts and techniques, but given these economic pressures, we advise that the greatest care be taken in evaluating these forecasts for planning. Stay tuned. — DJB 30 DEALERNEWS OCTOBER 2009 DEALERNEWS.COM http://www.DEALERNEWS.COM Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Dealernews - October 2009 Dealernews - October 2009 Table of Contents From the Editors InBox Speed Read Joe Delmont Cover Story State-by-Statement ATV/Dirt-by-State DJB Composite Index Special Report: Distributor Update U.S. Go-Kart Market in Serious Decline Dave Koshollek Fuel For Thought - Dave Koshollek Todd Shafer Marketing Update Merchandising Update New Products New Products: Off-Road Advertiser Index/Customer Service Mike Vaughan Dealernews - October 2009 Dealernews - October 2009 - Dealernews - October 2009 (Page Cover1) Dealernews - October 2009 - Dealernews - October 2009 (Page Cover2) Dealernews - October 2009 - Dealernews - October 2009 (Page 1) Dealernews - October 2009 - Table of Contents (Page 2) Dealernews - October 2009 - Table of Contents (Page 3) Dealernews - October 2009 - Table of Contents (Page 4) Dealernews - October 2009 - Table of Contents (Page 5) Dealernews - October 2009 - From the Editors (Page 6) Dealernews - October 2009 - From the Editors (Page 7) Dealernews - October 2009 - InBox (Page 8) Dealernews - October 2009 - InBox (Page 9) Dealernews - October 2009 - Speed Read (Page 10) Dealernews - October 2009 - Speed Read (Page 11) Dealernews - October 2009 - Speed Read (Page 12) Dealernews - October 2009 - Speed Read (Page 13) Dealernews - October 2009 - Speed Read (Page 14) Dealernews - October 2009 - Speed Read (Page 15) Dealernews - October 2009 - Joe Delmont (Page 16) Dealernews - October 2009 - Joe Delmont (Page 17) Dealernews - October 2009 - Cover Story (Page 18) Dealernews - October 2009 - Cover Story (Page 19) Dealernews - October 2009 - Cover Story (Page 20) Dealernews - October 2009 - Cover Story (Page 21) Dealernews - October 2009 - Cover Story (Page 22) Dealernews - October 2009 - Cover Story (Page 23) Dealernews - October 2009 - Cover Story (Page 24) Dealernews - October 2009 - Cover Story (Page 25) Dealernews - October 2009 - State-by-Statement (Page 26) Dealernews - October 2009 - State-by-Statement (Page 27) Dealernews - October 2009 - ATV/Dirt-by-State (Page 28) Dealernews - October 2009 - ATV/Dirt-by-State (Page 29) Dealernews - October 2009 - DJB Composite Index (Page 30) Dealernews - October 2009 - DJB Composite Index (Page 31) Dealernews - October 2009 - Special Report: Distributor Update (Page 32) Dealernews - October 2009 - Special Report: Distributor Update (Page 33) Dealernews - October 2009 - Special Report: Distributor Update (Page 34) Dealernews - October 2009 - Special Report: Distributor Update (Page 35) Dealernews - October 2009 - Special Report: Distributor Update (Page 36) Dealernews - October 2009 - Special Report: Distributor Update (Page 37) Dealernews - October 2009 - U.S. Go-Kart Market in Serious Decline (Page 38) Dealernews - October 2009 - U.S. Go-Kart Market in Serious Decline (Page 39) Dealernews - October 2009 - Fuel For Thought - Dave Koshollek (Page 40) Dealernews - October 2009 - Fuel For Thought - Dave Koshollek (Page 41) Dealernews - October 2009 - Todd Shafer (Page 42) Dealernews - October 2009 - Todd Shafer (Page 43) Dealernews - October 2009 - Marketing Update (Page 44) Dealernews - October 2009 - Marketing Update (Page 45) Dealernews - October 2009 - Merchandising Update (Page 46) Dealernews - October 2009 - Merchandising Update (Page 47) Dealernews - October 2009 - New Products: Off-Road (Page 48) Dealernews - October 2009 - New Products: Off-Road (Page 48A) Dealernews - October 2009 - New Products: Off-Road (Page 48B) Dealernews - October 2009 - New Products: Off-Road (Page 48C) Dealernews - October 2009 - New Products: Off-Road (Page 48D) Dealernews - October 2009 - New Products: Off-Road (Page 48E) Dealernews - October 2009 - New Products: Off-Road (Page 48F) Dealernews - October 2009 - New Products: Off-Road (Page 48G) Dealernews - October 2009 - New Products: Off-Road (Page 48H) Dealernews - October 2009 - New Products: Off-Road (Page 48I) Dealernews - October 2009 - New Products: Off-Road (Page 48J) Dealernews - October 2009 - New Products: Off-Road (Page 49) Dealernews - October 2009 - New Products: Off-Road (Page 50) Dealernews - October 2009 - New Products: Off-Road (Page 51) Dealernews - October 2009 - New Products: Off-Road (Page 52) Dealernews - October 2009 - New Products: Off-Road (Page 53) Dealernews - October 2009 - New Products: Off-Road (Page 54) Dealernews - October 2009 - New Products: Off-Road (Page 55) Dealernews - October 2009 - New Products: Off-Road (Page 56) Dealernews - October 2009 - New Products: Off-Road (Page 57) Dealernews - October 2009 - New Products: Off-Road (Page 58) Dealernews - October 2009 - New Products: Off-Road (Page 59) Dealernews - October 2009 - New Products: Off-Road (Page 60) Dealernews - October 2009 - New Products: Off-Road (Page 61) Dealernews - October 2009 - Advertiser Index/Customer Service (Page 62) Dealernews - October 2009 - Advertiser Index/Customer Service (Page 63) Dealernews - October 2009 - 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